January 2011 Newsletter

Congratulations to the Trustees elected to the 2011-2013 term:

Don Crellin, Retired; John Crocker, Treasurer; Cindy Girdler, Madison-Perry Chamber; Dawn Huber, Huntington Bank; David Merkel, Chase Bank; Alyson Scott, Fredon Corporation; Jeffrey Shibley, Yours Truly; Steve Tsengas, OurPet’s Company.

Welcome to new member Renee Berry, CEO, Lake County Council on Aging, 8520 East Street, Mentor.

Demographic Dynamics

Over the next four decades, American governments will oversee a much larger and far more diverse population. As we gain upward of 100 million people, America will inevitably become a more complex, crowded and competitive place, but it will continue to remain highly dependent on its people’s innovative and entrepreneurial spirit.

In 2050, the U.S. will look very different from the country in 2000, at the dawn of the new millennium. By mid-century, the U.S. will no longer be a “white country”, but rather an amalgam of racial, ethnic and religious groups – all participants in the construction of a new civilization whose roots lie not in any one country or continent, but across the entirety of human cultures and racial types. No other advanced, populous country will enjoy such ethnic diversity.

The implications of this change will be profound for governments – perhaps in ways not now commonly anticipated. Most Americans would accede to the federal government an important role in developing public works, national defense and regulations for health and safety, but they also tend to believe that local communities and neighborhoods should possess the power to craft appropriate solutions to other problems.

Americans also are more settled than any time in history – partially a function of an aging population – and thus more concerned with local developments. As recently as the 1970s, one in five Americans moved annually; in 2004 that number was 14 percent, the lowest rate since 1950. In 2008, barely one in 10 moved, a fraction of the rate in the 1960s. Workers

are increasingly
unwilling to move even for a promotion due to family and other concerns. The recession accelerated this process, but the pattern will likely persist even in good times.

Americans also prefer to live in decentralized environments. There are more than 65,000 general-purpose governments; the average local jurisdiction population in the United States is 6,200 – small enough that non-professional politicians can have a serious impact on local issues.

This dispersion is likely to continue. Roughly 80 to 90 percent of all metropolitan growth in the last decade took place on the periphery; at the same time, the patterns of domestic migration have seen a shift away from the biggest cities and toward smaller ones.

Technology would allow skilled people to congregate in communities of their choice or at home. Today not only knowledge workers but also those in construction trades, agriculture and other professions are home based, conducting their operations out of trucks, vans or home offices.

Many leading-edge companies now recognize this trend. As much as 40 percent of IBM’s work force operates full time at home or remotely at clients’ businesses.

Employment is shifting away from mega-corporations to smaller units and individuals; between 1980 and 2000, self-employed individuals expanded tenfold to include 16 percent of the work force. The smallest businesses have enjoyed the fastest rate of growth, far more than any other business category. By 2006 there were some 20 million such businesses, one for every six private-sector workers.

The drive toward dispersing political power will prove critical if we hope to meet the needs of a diverse and complex nation of 400 million. New forms of association – from local electronic newsletters to a proliferation of local farmers markets, festivals and a host of ad hoc social service groups – are already growing. Indeed, volunteerism has spiked and seems likely to surge among baby boomers. In 2008, some 61 million Americans volunteered, representing more than one-quarter of the population older than 16.

It’s these more intimate units – the family, the neighborhood association, the church or local farmers market – that constitute what Thomas Jefferson called our “little republics”, which are most critical to helping mid-21st century America. Here, our nation of 400 million souls will find its fundamental sustenance and its best hope for the brightest future.

Sentenced to Shakespeare

To help juvenile offenders develop communication skills, manage anger and build self-esteem, Berkshire County, Mass., created the Shakespeare in the Courts program, which gives the juveniles scenes to perform instead of community service hours to fulfill. A Berkshire County Juvenile Court judge selects teens to collaborate in reciting such plays as Hamlet, Julius Caesar and Henry V. At the 10- to 14-week program’s end, teens perform for their family members, lawyers and teachers. More than 200 teens have completed the program, supported by grants from the Massachusetts Cultural Council, since it originated in 2000. The program has received national recognition – it was featured on The Colbert Report and received the White House’s Coming Up Taller Award.