By the numbers, Ohio’s still in a tough state

127 is the number of months in which Ohio’s job growth has trailed the national average, according to U.S. Department of Labor data compiled by George Zeller, economic research analyst for the Center for Community Solutions in Cleveland.

In September, Ohio lost 2,500 jobs, during what has been a strong economic recovery in most of the country. "The loss is particularly alarming, since all of Ohio’s September job losses were outside manufacturing. The nonmanufacturing economy of Ohio is currently shrinking."

The current 127-month swoon is the state’s worst performance in job growth since before World War II.

Crains 11/5/06

Sprawl and Zoning,Cause & Effect?

Concern over urban sprawl is at least in part a concern over dispersed, low-density residential development patterns in suburban and ex-urban locations. Is zoning contributing to sprawl? And if so, how much denser would development be without it?

Our results show that in the urban fringe county we studied, density was most constrained in rural subdivisions facing very low-density zoning limits (requiring minimum average lot size of 5 acres). Although these subdivisions would have been almost 50 percent denser without the zoning regulations, they would still be considered relatively low-density development. And in the residential and town center areas, the zoning limits do not appear to be binding.

A number of factors affecting both the value and the cost of additional lots were found to be important in determining density outcomes. Physical site characteristics, accessibility measures, sewer availability, and surrounding land uses have a significant influence on subdivision density.

We hasten to point out that although our data may be typical of many exurban, fast-growing rural jurisdictions around large metropolitan areas, the results could be somewhat different in the case of a more urban or an older suburban area. The underlying zoning will be denser in such areas, but the demand for additional density may be greater as well. Much of the new development would be infill in already-built neighborhoods on land that has higher development value. Although there would be pressures to develop at high densities, there are also likely to be countervailing pressures in these areas.

Much anecdotal evidence exists about objections to higher density on the part of existing residents who perceive high costs and reductions in neighborhood quality of life from new development, particularly high-density development.

The land use problems plaguing many high-growth areas of the United States - declining open space, farmlands, and ecological resources - are not likely to go away in the near future. As policy makers and planners struggle to find solutions, a clearer understanding of the underlying forces driving development is needed. Our findings suggest that while planners in outlying suburban areas need to carefully consider whether their zoning regulations are exacerbating these problems, it is likely that market forces do strongly influence large average lot sizes in these locations.

      Va. McConnell et al, Resources, Spring ‘06

Reversing the Brain Drain

Institutions of higher learning have always played an important role in the economic growth of communities. They are stable employers, rooted in the community; they have jobs of all kinds; and they pay good wages. In addition, they attract college-age migrants who by definition are highly educated and often decide to stay in town. In the best of all worlds the graduates create successful spin-off businesses that drive the local economy.

The brain drain is a serious problem because college-age kids perceive little economic opportunity where they are.

Perhaps the best example in the Rust Belt these days is Kalamazoo, an aging and struggling industrial Michigan city. Its economy and population are flat, while suburban flight continues. The result is very little demand for housing or anything else in the city itself.

At least that was the result until a group of local philanthropists got together with the city school district to create the Kalamazoo Promise. Now, any student who enters the city school system no later than ninth grade gets a college scholarship - 100 percent for kids who’ve been in Kalamazoo their whole lives, 65 percent for those who move there for high school. Half of the city’s 472 June graduates will get a free college ride, but there’s a geographical catch: They get the scholarship only if they go to a state-supported public

university or community college in Michigan.

The benefit is twofold.  Kalamazoo kids stay in the state for college, and Kalamazoo creates a market for residents. A large homebuilder inthe state is now focusing more attention on the city, hoping to build homes for families interested in the Kalamazoo Promise.

Some folks in the Rust Belt believe that keeping their kids at home isn’t possible. School administrators in the Northeast and Midwest often say that the best they can hope for is to make sure local kids get a decent education before they move away. But giving a financial break for a geographical preference is an old idea in education - and a successful one.

Governing 8/06

The Economic Forum of Oct. 18 was well received with 240 attendees, the most ever, thanks to Bruce Herold of Chase with 78 attendees and the planning committee of Steve Tsengas, chair, Tim Cahill, Bob Cahen, Dave Gilmer, Randy Horst, Jack Nettis, Marie Pucak, and Darrell Webster, whose office prepared the program, helped with the mailing, and presented the sponsor logos on the screen at the meeting. Thanks also to the registration table workers Don Crellin, Sylvia Hoffmanbeck and Jeff Shibley. The forum has grown year by year and the challenge is to stay current with topics of interest. Any and all ideas for ‘07 would be considered by the committee.